Intense battle between bulls and bears in germanium market, with intensified game over future direction [SMM Germanium Market Analysis]

SMM reported on June 27: Although the domestic germanium market prices remained generally stable this week, there were some minor fluctuations due to intensified market competition. Some manufacturers, in an effort to secure more downstream orders, once again offered low-priced resources of germanium dioxide and germanium ingots, while many others insisted on refusing to budge on prices for germanium dioxide and germanium ingots. Given the tight market resources, many end-users purchased both low-priced and high-priced resources to further supplement their raw material inventories. Currently, there are still significant differences in the sales and supply policies of manufacturers for terminal users and trade links, leading to continued large discrepancies in market prices. Market participants indicated that in the coming period, suppliers would continue to increase shipments to reduce inventory and cash in, and the competition for downstream orders would likely persist. From the demand perspective, the enthusiasm for purchasing among infrared and optical fiber terminal buyers has slightly increased recently. Overall, there are signs of improvement in the recent order situation. Given the current stalemate in the fundamentals, it is temporarily difficult for the prices of germanium ingots and germanium dioxide to rise or fall significantly, and the market's indecision and competition will continue for some time. Currently, the average price of germanium ingots is 14,750 yuan/kg, and the average price of germanium dioxide is 10,100 yuan/kg.

According to official information obtained by SMM, the results of the public tender sales for germanium ingots and germanium dioxide conducted by Guangxi Yusheng Germanium Industry High-Tech Co., Ltd. last week have been announced. Specifically, according to official information, this batch of goods included 1,000 kg of germanium dioxide and 1,000 kg of zone-refined germanium ingots, all of which have been sold. Guangxi Yusheng Germanium Industry has signed contracts with the buyers and is awaiting payment and cargo pick-up. The final bidding prices were 10,650 yuan/kg for germanium dioxide and 16,100 yuan/kg for zone-refined germanium ingots. The delivery method is self pick-up by the buyer, with the buyer bearing the freight costs. Market participants indicated that this transaction result was somewhat unexpected but also reasonable. However, recent market prices have also shown a trend of differentiation. Some germanium manufacturers have increased their shipment efforts and offered more room for negotiation to compete for market share, while others have insisted on refusing to budge on prices when shipping goods. Nevertheless, for downstream buyers, they are actively purchasing regardless of price levels, with end-use demand performing well. This is mainly due to the development of downstream terminal industries, leading to an increasing demand for germanium.